By RUSS BROWN • Photos by: UofL Athletics
Yes, college football has barely gotten underway, but with Louisville off to a fast start, it’s not too early to take a look at the Cardinals’ chances to make the new 12-team College Football Playoff field for the first time. ESPN’s college football staff has already made its first predictions and three of them have included UofL.
Before we go any further, in a nutshell, here’s how the playoff -- expanded from four teams -- will work:
It’s all about the rankings from the 13-member selection panel, consisting mostly of former college football coaches and past and present athletic directors. The five highest-ranked Football Bowl Subdivision (FBS) conference champions will make the field and then the seventh highest-ranked at-large qualifiers. There are no automatic bids. With the PAC-12 no longer in operation, college football is now the Power 4 of the ACC, Big 12, Big Ten and SEC. The fifth participant willbe the highest-ranked team from the Group of Five conferences (AAC, C-USA, Mid-American, Mountain West and Sun Belt).
The four highest-ranked league champs receive first-round byes into the quarterfinals. The four first-round games will match the teams seeded five through 12. First-round games will be played on campus, hosted by the higher-ranked teams. Those games are scheduled to be played Dec. 20 and 21. The quarterfinals and semifinals will be played at traditional bowl sites. Teams will not be reseeded after the opening round.
The top four teams will be slotted into the most advantageous locations, with the top seed getting the highest preference. The Fiesta Bowl quarterfinal is set for Dec. 31 and the Peach, Rose and Sugar bowls are to be played on Jan. 1. The Orange Bowl semifinal is scheduled for Jan. 9 and the Cotton Bowl semifinal Jan. 10. The first championship game with the 12-team format is set for Jan. 20 at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta.
The first rankings won’t be released until Nov. 5, with subsequent ratings on Nov. 12, 19, 26 and Dec. 3. Selection Day will be Dec. 8, but we should pretty much know Louisville’s fate before the initial ratings.
At that point, the Cardinals will have played against each of the three Top-25 teams on their schedule -- Notre Dame, Miami and Clemson. With a schedule not as tough as a number of Big 12, Big Ten and SEC teams, if UofL is to join the playoff conversation it will need at least one signature win against a ranked team, and possibly more. Of the three ESPN experts who included the Cards in the field, two listed them as the No. 10 seed, the other at No. 11.
At this writing, UofL has at least three loseable games on its schedule, Notre Dame, Clemson and Kentucky, along with a dangerous trip to Boston College, the ACC’s surprise team so far. And, of course, the Cards can’t afford to slip up against the teams they will be favored to beat -- SMU, Virginia, Pitt and Stanford.
“I would say it’s up for grabs,” UofL senior defensive lineman Ramon Puryear said. “Anybody can get it.”
Florida State was the preseason pick to win the championship, but has virtually dropped out of the race already after losses in two of its first three conference outings. NC State, which was chosen fourth, doesn’t look like a serious threat either, having been blasted by Tennessee (51-10) and Clemson (59-35). That leaves Clemson, No. 2 preseason, and No. 3 Miami as co-favorites with No. 5 Louisville close behind.
Even with a solid record, though, UofL can’t be assured of an at-large bid, given the superior strength of the other three Power 4 conferences. So the best-case scenario for the Cards’ to reach the playoff would be to earn a spot in the ACC championship game, which means their overall record would potentially be worthwhile. The league has expanded by adding SMU, Stanford and California and eliminating divisions, with the top two teams in the standings squaring off in the title game.
With the apparent balance in the ACC, it looks as if UofL, Clemson, Miami and possibly SMU and BC all have a shot at a berth in the championship contest, which will be played in Bank of America Stadium in Charlotte, N.C. on Dec. 27. That’s three weeks after selection day, so UofL will have to make its playoff statement well before then.
Navigating the land mines in the ACC without stepping on one or two won’t be easy. Even last year when UofL made its first appearance in a conference title game and finished with a 10-4 record, it needed to win five one-possession games by an average of just 5.8 points, and coach Jeff Brohm expects more of the same this season.
“I told our team the other day (prior to the 31-19 win over Georgia Tech), ‘this is starting a long run of games where it’s going to be four quarters of back-and-forth and if you’re not mentally and physically ready to get that done, you’re not going to win’. So we’ve got to be able to withstand the momentum swings and hang in there and continue to fight to the end and hope that were good enough to win when all’s said and done.”
Brohm expects this year’s league games to be just as competitive, and maybe more so, than last season.
“I think that’s how it’s going to work in this conference this year. I think there’s a lot of parity, a lot of teams that can beat anybody on a given day.” he said. “When you play competitive football at a high level you’re not going to dominate,” he said. “It is not going to happen. Now, if you play a lesser opponent, you might, but when you play really good opponents, it is just not going to be that way. You have to be able to hang in there and go back and forth and try to play the perfect game.
“I think our guys compete hard against each other every day in practice. Some days the defense will dominate us in the scrimmage; other days (offense) will dominate them. That is kind of how it works when the talent level is similar. But if you really believe in yourself and your team and what you’re doing, you can find a way to win those (close) games. We have in the past.”
Due to the parity in the ACC combined with the CFB expansion, a playoff spot is much more accessible than at any time since it began in 2014. It’s up to Louisville to take advantage of those opportunities.
The Cards can do what no other ACC team that lost in the league’s championship game has done since 2008: play for the title again the following season. BC pulled off that feat 16 years ago, losing to Virginia Tech after also falling to the Hokies in 2007.
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